Revenue estimates:
Ra1 looks set to make 97-98 cr extended week 1.
Becasue of extended week 1,second week fall wil be more.But due to Eid on monday,fall in second week might be slightly less than BG.
Second week will be 24-27 cr. (70-75 % drop)
Third week fall wil be higher as rockstar is releasing.80-85% drop can be expected.3-5 cr week 3.
Approx 124-130 cr will be the final nett without regional collections.
With regional,the final nett should be around 129-135 with a DS of around 69.6cr-72.9cr
Overseas has been 30 cr in 5 days.I dont think it wil make more than 50-55 cr.Final neet after release in non-traditional markets looks to be 70-75 cr max with DS of 31.5cr-33.75cr
Total DS share : (69.6cr-72.9cr) + (31.5cr-33.75cr) = 101.1cr-106.6cr
DS reqd = 121-129 cr
Loss = 19.9cr-22.4cr approx
Cost estimates:
Production cost - 150 cr
Marketing budget - 35-40 crores
Prints cost (Extensive release)- 25 crores
Landing cost : 210-215 cr
Brand associations - 35-40 cr
Music launch sold to star TV - 10 cr
Satellite(deducting taxes) - 24-27 cr
Music rights - 7 cr
DTH rights - 5 cr
Non theatrical revenues : 81-89 crores
Amount to be recovered : 121-129 crores
Indian theatrical - 165 cr (90 cr DS)
overseas theatrical - 88 crores (40 cr DS)
References:
http://www.koimoi.com/bollywood-news/how-shah-rukh-khan-s-ra-one-will-recover-its-rs-150-crore/
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-08-27/news/29934847_1_satellite-rights-broadcasters-raj-nayak
http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/srks-superhero-power-turning-ra.one-to-marketing-gold/1/18952.html
http://business-standard.com/india/news/will-he-be-king-again/451787/
http://investmoneyinindia.com/3470/ra-one-could-manage-a-business-of-rs-250-to-270-cr
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-marketing/article2538434.ece
Welcome to the gr8 home, home where movies will be slaughtered and Knitted....
ReplyDeleteGood Baba... Good. ALL THE BEST...
Thanks AA my co-partner.
ReplyDeleteEt se Et bajaani hai har film ki.By the end of 2011,we should be in the hit list of all Khan,kumar and kapoor fans ;)
All Material will be posted here..Every ego will be crushed here and Every hope will be smothered here... At the end ONLY QUALITY will Survive and Flourish here....
ReplyDeleteWe are driven by "LAW OF QUALITY"
Yes he will make lot of money and much money ,he will be much richer because there r many fools to watch his movies and fill his pocket and make him more richer and we have to fight for month to earn thousand of rupees and from which we will spend on his movie to make him more richer , They Blocked my video from you tube because they got worried.
ReplyDeleteRA-1 Very Bad special effects Made by child, and they say very expensive movie, money only given to stars for parties m why to watch this low budget action film , Ramsey films better, Spend high cost is sham , a gimmick to give hype to the movie, effects taken from X-men, fantastic 4 etc but r of inferior quality sp I down loaded on my face book many ideas r taken from Robot too.
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=118832244887085
RA-one has copied bit from here and there even from Tamil films like Robot.
Every bit is copied from here and there see. It has even copied the posters from Hollywood films at least they must show some creativity
http://www.pinkvilla.com/entertainment/discussion/raones-ideas-lifted-robot-and-other-superhero-films
http://www.bollysquad.com/2011/09/10/ra-one-new-poster-copied-from-batman-begins-movie/
http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/ENT-is-the-ra-2445414.html?HF-2=
baba - firstly hats off - very nice work
ReplyDeleteThe only issue I see is that you are taking the highest numbers doled out from a costs standpoint and the lowest numbers doled out from a revenue standpoint - would have been better if you had taken an average there
IMO - your costs are off by 20cr - but let it be - lets assume 200cr
You have brand associations at 30-35 cr - it was announced today that it was 52 cr ( i am assuming the music launch is included - is it?)
You have satellite at 24-27, it was announced at 35cr
DVD and Music is 10cr which is fair
So non-theatrical revenues are 97cr and not 76cr
RCE sold theatrical rights for 125cr (77+48). SO RCE is already sitting on profits of (223-200) 23 cr...on the most expensive movie made
For Eros - they have to make 77*2 = 154 in india and 48*2=96 overseas to break even - or the movie has to make some combination that adds up to this. I see this movie easily making the India number - maybe in the first extended week itself
Beld
Great work...but Ra One will crush all your hopes of bringing it down. It will do stupendous business.
ReplyDeleteGood to see ur comment beld.
ReplyDeleteI have taken range of various costs and quoted figures as per the data given in the credible links.No manipulation there.
My gross brand association figures including music launch is 40-45 cr.there are many figures for this head ranging from 30 cr to 70 cr!
Satellite price that you have quoted are inclusive of taxes.When adding to the revenue,tax is to be deducted.so 24-27 cr for satellite.
RJ - My analysis has no manipulation.so atleast here I m nt trying to bring anyone down. :)
ReplyDeletebaba - just to make the point - if you go by the 175cr budget that many people are talking about (the one mentioned it on NG yday i read) - then the math for red chillies is even better. For Eros tho - it is still the same
ReplyDeletethat was the point baba - you have selectively chosen the lower numbers for revenue and higher numbers for costs - I think Doga has also given links that clearly point out the numbers that he has put out. All that i am saying is that - the realistic numbers will be somewhere in between both of you - and thats what I have mentioned. Interestingly - have a question. For Eros to publically announce numbers - they are informing the tax dept about it - so the chances are that they are true. So yes I do believe your revenue numbers are understated
ReplyDelete